We Need to Relocate ICU Patients Out of Covid-19 Hotspots

Increasing the number of beds in a hard-hit location may actually result in more deaths.

by

Rodolfo Catena

and

Matthias Holweg

by

Rodolfo Catena

and

Matthias Holweg

June 23, 2020

Bloomberg Creative/Getty Images

Summary.

During the Covid-19 crisis it makes intuitive sense that if a hospital runs out of ICU beds, more patients will die. But simply increasing the number of available ICU beds in local hotspots — a common response to rising caseloads — may paradoxically result in increased mortality. The better response is to relocate patients early out of emerging hotspots in order to keep ICU loads well below the maximum capacity.

The stark national differences in the death rates of Covid-19 patients is much discussed and politicized. Germany and Italy, for example, have similar infection rates but dramatically different mortality rates; through June 20, in Germany, 4.7% of patients have died versus 14.5% of patients in Italy. Attempts to explain these disparate death rates generally point to differences in the effectiveness of testing regimes, the timing of social distancing measures, demographics, and the number of beds in intensive care units (known as ICU capacity).

Rodolfo Catena is an Associate Lecturer in Healthcare Management at Arden University, UK. He can be reached at rodolfo.catena@gmail.com.
Matthias Holweg is the American Standard Companies Professor of Operations Management at Saïd Business School at the University of Oxford and a visiting professor at the Huntsman School of Business at Utah State University.

We Need to Relocate ICU Patients Out of Covid-19 Hotspots

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