To all the brouhaha over offshoring in America, one rejoinder is that any unemployment is temporary. When the mass of baby boomers starts retiring in the next few years, the argument goes, there will be plenty of work for anyone in the baby bust generation whose job went overseas. That may be a comforting thought for U.S. baby busters, but it’s probably wrong. Despite their small numbers, the busters may paradoxically see unemployment get worse, not better.
A version of this article appeared in the March 2005 issue of Harvard Business Review.