As former baseball pitcher Vernon Law once put it, experience is a hard teacher because it gives the test first, and only then provides the lesson.
Research: Learning a Little About Something Makes Us Overconfident
Beginners quickly lose the ability to judge their own competence.
March 29, 2018
Summary.
One common theory about overconfident beginners is that they start that way. They start a new task or job as “unconscious incompetents,” not knowing what they don’t know. Their inevitable early mistakes and miscues prompt them to be conscious of their shortcomings. New research, however, suggests the opposite. Absolute beginners can be perfectly conscious and cautious about what they don’t know; the unconscious incompetence is instead something they grow into. In several studies, just a little experience replaced beginners’ caution with a false sense of competence. It appears that Alexander Pope was right when he said that a little learning is a dangerous thing.