Most people in the pharmaceutical industry firmly believe that successful drugs are the result of breakthrough science. Drug companies have notoriously high R&D budgets, and the output of their new product development tends to be prolific. The Swiss drug giant Novartis, for example, has 166 projects under development. Indeed, a large proportion of the recent M&A activity in pharmaceuticals has been driven by a desire to expand the R&D pipeline. Everyone wants to bring out the next wonder drug.

A version of this article appeared in the March–April 2000 issue of Harvard Business Review.